The global economic downturn has been nothing short of devastating to most of Canada’s forestry products industry. But Mr. Lazar, who is based in Ottawa, says he expects a turnaround by the end of the year and a brighter picture for the industry in 18 months.Hear that? In 18 months everything will be hunky dory with the Canadian forest industry because Americans will be building houses again."Even now you can see the (lumber) oversupply dwindling. . . . It will come back faster than you think," he told the editorial board of The Chronicle Herald on Friday.
While the global demand for newsprint will likely continue to drop, market demand for other pulp and paper products and lumber will rebound, he said.
Canada exports most of its lumber to the United States
"It is fairly predictable (in the U.S.), if they have population growth with immigration and the demographics, they are going to have to build houses. And they are going to continue to build out of sticks. Pulp has got pretty good prospects for global return. "
Mr. Lazar said pulp and paper is a little trickier to predict than lumber. "All pulp and paper responds to advertising, to retail."
But when the global economy recovers, Canada’s forestry industry will be in a strong position globally, mainly due to environmental progress it has made, he said.
Well, maybe it will. I certainly don't know. And neither does anyone else, really.
The American housing market collapse is substantial, and reveals some pretty fundamental flaws in the structure of entire American economy. Lazar appears to be echoing the same substance-free platitudes about recovery mouthed by mainstream economists everywhere---the same mainstream economists that entirely missed the financial and housing collapse in the first place.
No sense arguing about such predictions---we'll know in time. Just one question: if Lazar is wrong, and 18 months from now the Canadian timber industry is still struggling, does he get discredited, lose his job, retreat in shame, or does he continue to get the big bucks?
Evidently, economists get paid the big bucks to make predictions about future economic growth, and will continue to get paid those big bucks whether those predictions come true or not. Nice gig, if you can get it.
