The issues, the debates, the democracy of it all. There’s nothing like election season in Halifax. And we are in the middle of it!
Yesterday premier Tim Houston called a provincial election for Nov. 26, even as campaign signs for the just-finished municipal race litter roadsides around the city, and the threat of a federal election looms over prime minister Trudeau and the nation. The US is getting in on the act too, with a storybook contest for president between a convicted felon and a prosecuting attorney—here the storybook is called The Handmaid’s Tale.
But who really cares?
That’s not a rhetorical question. One of the many great features of the democracy of it all is transparency around voter turnout, which is a proxy value for citizen engagement AKA caring. So let’s find out.
According to the Pew Research Center, about 66% of eligible voters cast a ballot in America’s last presidential election, in 2020, “the highest rate for any national election since 1900.” Kamala Harris vs Don Trump also has a magnetic appeal—like a car crash—that’s reached our fair city: I’m a dual Canadian/US citizen, and when I mailed my absentee ballot in last week, the Canada Post worker who sold me the stamp said she’s been seeing an awful lot of mail-ins from Americans living in Halifax.
Canada’s latest national election was in 2021, and turnout was 62.6% across the country per Elections Canada. The voting agency also breaks down turnout by district, showing the Halifax-area ridings ranging from a low of 61% turnout in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour up to 66% in the riding of Halifax. As in the US, a majority of basically 4 out of 6 eligible voters exercised their franchise in the most recent federal election.
Turnout drops from federal to provincial election. Nova Scotia’s last vote was also in 2021, and turnout on the whole was 55%, still a majority. The five ridings with the lowest turnout were in the Halifax Regional Municipality, from Preston (47.6%) and Halifax Atlantic (47.3%) down to Cole Harbour (38%). That’s a bit below an even split of 3 out of 6 eligible voters casting a ballot in the city.
Participation slid even lower in the Oct. 19 municipal election. For the 16 district seats on city council, turnout ranged from District 9’s high of 45.5% down to District 14 at 28%. (District 9 is Halifax West-Armdale, where incumbent Shawn Cleary was returned to office; rookie John A. Young won the open race for District 14, Hammonds Plains-Upper Hammonds Plains-Lucasville-Middle & Upper Sackville.)
The mayor’s race is a useful stand-in as a measure of turnout in Halifax overall, because every voter in every district can vote for mayor. And there, turnout was 36.8%, a minority of just about 2 out of 6 eligible voters bothering.
Our new mayor Andy Fillmore won with 42.5% of the votes cast in the open field of 16 contenders who stepped up when incumbent Mike Savage decided not to run again. Councillors-turned-contenders Pam Lovelace and Waye Mason got another 40.9% of the votes between them.
At 42.5% Fillmore won with less than a majority of voters, but he has even more of a minority victory considering the non-voters. There were 336,418 people eligible to cast a ballot for mayor across the city; Fillmore was supported by 52,618 of them, or just 15.6% of potential voters.
If this low number—almost but not quite 1 out of 6 eligible voters—is at all concerning to you, realize that most Haligonians simply don’t share your concern, as 63.3% of eligible voters did not cast a vote. Besides, it could have been lower given recent history.
The 36.8% turnout in 2024 isn’t much below the 39.8% in 2020—the COVID election, when voting was a welcome distraction from the pandemic—and is in line with the 36.9% turnout of 2012, the first election after council was shrunk by the province to its current size. This year is considerably higher than the 31.8% turnout in 2016.
Before the downsized-council era, the 2004 mayoral vote had a whopping 48.4% turnout. But that vote also proves voting isn’t the only thing that matters in politics.
With that election win 20 years ago, proud Bedford son Peter Kelly was the popular incumbent mayor returned to office on the strength of 82.3% of the votes. An overwhelming majority by any standard. Kelly got 125,035 votes—more than double Fillmore’s 2024 count, in a smaller city. He had support from fully 40% of the eligible voters, where Fillmore got 15.6% of the electorate.
That was also Kelly’s last election. He didn’t run again after The Coast uncovered financial shenanigans with an estate Kelly was executor of, and he left town in disgrace. When the election is over, actions count a lot more than numbers.
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This article appears in Oct 1 – Nov 6, 2024.
Note that 2008 was Peter Kelly’s last election, not 2004. According to the official results, the 2008 election for Mayor had a voter turnout of 36.19%, in line with the 2012 and 2024 results. The 48.4% turnout achieved in 2004 appears to be an outlier, likely explained by the province wide referendum on Sunday shopping that was also on the ballot that year during municipal elections. Short of another referendum on a contentious topic, perhaps allowing for online voting up to and including on election day would help boost voter turnout going forward for municipal elections?
Houston has never done anything for his constituents who are homeless or searching for a place to live for years and he never will. Then there’s the 160,000 who can’t get a doctor and thousands more waiting in hospitals for a day at a time for medical attention. All thanks to Houston.