It seems increasingly likely US president-elect Donald Trump will impose a tariff on Canadian exports when he is inaugurated. If his threat of a 25% tariff comes to fruition, it will decimate Nova Scotia’s economy. If it doesn’t, we may have avoided a new disaster, but we still have the current one: an affordability crisis, a housing shortage, overrun food banks, homeless encampments, the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the country, a weak economy expected to grow a measly 1.6% in 2025, inflation and a broken health system. Last year saw the highest single-year increase in the number of Nova Scotia children living below the poverty line in 35 years. Nova Scotians are the second-poorest people in Canada in GDP per capita terms. The rest of Canada might be a bit better off, but not compared to Americans. US real GDP per capita is $66,300—Canada’s is $44,400. Nova Scotia’s is even lower at $41,700. (All calculated in US dollars.)
Voting to join America as a state in our own right would make life much more affordable for Nova Scotians, regardless of what may come of American tariff threats. On top of having more disposable income than us, Americans spend less on basic necessities like food and energy.
We currently pay way more for the necessities of life than Americans—and many Canadians, too. Free of Canadian supply management policies and other federal constraints, we would save on staples like milk, rice and poultry. Groceries, electronics, cell phone plans and airline tickets would be much less expensive. Beer and other sin taxes would be cheaper. Energy would be less expensive, too. Nova Scotians pay more than $1,500 CAD to fill a 275-gallon oil furnace. In Maine, it costs $1,253.65 CAD to fill the same-sized tank.
American federal taxation would be less of a drain on Nova Scotians. This includes income tax for many middle- and high-income earners, capital gains tax (especially for long-term gains), corporate income tax, payroll taxes, fuel taxes, estate taxes and sales taxes. In 2023, Canada’s tax revenue to GDP ratio was 34.8%. In the same year the US had a tax revenue to GDP ratio of 25.2%.
Nova Scotian businesses would find doing business is way more affordable if we were part of the United States. For one, operating in US dollars eliminates the approximately 2% that Nova Scotia businesses spend on foreign exchange transaction costs. Exporters to the US would save on the costs of international trade, accounting and finance, in addition to being more attractive to importers in other countries who prefer the US dollar.
Nova Scotia’s housing crisis would be alleviated by joining America. Housing prices in Canada have skyrocketed, increasing by approximately 142% in real terms since 2005. Meanwhile, US housing prices have risen by only 26% over the same period.
One of the reasons that the United States has kept up with housing demand is due to its ability to turn out new homes faster. According to CMHC, it takes 15.3 months to build a home in Canada. In the United States, it takes less than half that time—seven months—to build a home. Joining America would help speed up new home builds in this province while also giving Nova Scotia builders access to cheaper American materials, bringing down average home prices over the long term.
Construction costs in the USA are almost half as expensive as in Canada. Building for winter is one part of the price differential, but it isn’t the whole story. In April 2024, the national average for material costs in the US increased by 0.1% over the past quarter and increased by 1.4% over the past 12 months. The national average for material costs in Canada increased by 0.9% over the past quarter and increased by 3.4% over the past 12 months. Having unfettered access to the US materials market as a state in the union would enable cheaper and faster housing builds in this province.
Our current affordability crisis implores us to think big about how to get our economy moving again, and to seize the opportunities in front of us. With president Trump seemingly open to the idea of adding new states to the union, Nova Scotians should hold a referendum to decide whether to apply.
Michael Kennedy is a fundraising consultant with clients in Canada and the United States. A concerned Nova Scotian Canadian who wants to be a less concerned Nova Scotian American, he can be reached at novascexit@gmail.com.
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This article appears in Dec 19, 2024 – Jan 31, 2025.
Joseph Howe was against Confederation in 1867 but the British wanted it to happen. Premier Fielding won the 1886 provincial election. The main issue was his position that Nova Scotia should withdraw. Again, the British Government wouldn’t let it happen and they still controlled a fair bit of what the Canadian Government could do 19 years after Confederation. Maybe the third try would be the charm.
Go get f*cked, we will never be the US
Pretty much all of the savings you’ve outlined are wiped out instantly from roughly an additional 100% in higher costs in accessing healthcare in a privatised system ($6,319 on average in Canada versus $12,555 in the US). Despite spending significantly more on healthcare, the US lags behind Canada in key health outcomes like life expectancy and infant mortality rates. Medical bankruptcy, almost unheard of in Canada, is a major risk in the US.
Your comparison of US GDP per capita with Nova Scotia’s GDP per capita is misleading. Many US states—including Mississippi, South Carolina, and Alabama—fall significantly below the average. Even Maine, which is geographically and economically closer to the Maritimes, has a GDP per capita more aligned with Nova Scotia’s. Joining the US doesn’t guarantee economic parity with its wealthiest regions; we’d likely align with its poorer states, many of which face persistent poverty and weaker social safety nets.
Regarding housing, faster construction timelines in the US don’t tell the whole story. Housing affordability there is undermined by corporate investment in residential properties and lax tenant protections, which could worsen Nova Scotia’s housing crisis. Losing Canadian equalisation payments and federal social programs, like universal healthcare, employment insurance, and child benefits, would leave us worse off. There’s no comparable system of wealth redistribution between US states to compensate for this loss.
Lastly, while your article argues that taxes would decrease, it fails to account for what those taxes fund—public healthcare, education, and other critical services. Lower taxes come with trade-offs, and the US has its own struggles with homelessness, tent encampments, and affordability. These issues wouldn’t disappear if Nova Scotia became a state.
Instead of looking south, we should focus on policies that strengthen Nova Scotia within Canada—addressing housing, affordability, and economic growth by leveraging our unique position and advocating for needed reforms. Joining the US wouldn’t solve our problems and might make them worse.
Michael Kennedy should consider the experience of Maine for a more accurate assessment of how Nova Scotia might fare as a 51st state. He might also be interested to see Ronald Coleman’s new film “What Really Counts” and consider that GDP is a poor measure of life quality. https://whatreallycounts.ca/ I’d rather put sharp things in my eyes than be the 51st state.
Yo Micheal I hope all the women and queer people in your life read this so they know to avoid you. I’m not trading my human rights
for affordability.
I find it deeply troubling that The Coast would see fit to publish this opinion piece, and to give it a front-and-center platform in their morning newsletter.
This attitude, that Trump will “fix the economy” and that everything else is unimportant is the exact same brain rot that caused him to be elected in the first place. Do we expect that our healthcare crisis will improve if we were to join the US and be thrust into the world of private healthcare insurance? Do we expect our epidemic of IPV to reduce in a country where the leader is openly and proudly misogynistic and sexist? These things have already gotten worse just by proximity. I would hate to see what it would do to us to be part of it.
Perhaps the author of this piece doesn’t think about those things. I wish I didn’t either. Shame on you for proposing this, and shame on The Coast for running it.
Michael, just please, move there then and do better research about what makes a good life. We don’t need you to advocate for this beautiful province, that’s part of a nation ranked happier, healthier, safer, cleaner, better educated, and freer than the U.S., to be absorbed into a monolith. Just please leave here and don’t let the door hit you on the way out because you’ll have to pay a s#!t load of money to get yourself fixed once you get there!
So you want to swap our broken healthcare system for… An even more broken one? All the savings we might benefit from that you’ve listed above could easily be cancelled out with higher health insurance payment s.
And that’s ignoring the big orange elephant in the room…
Yeah, I want to join a country projected to have $50 trillion in debt by 2035. I’m not interested in helping America get out of the hole it’s dug for itself.
Will I become obese and have to buy a gun…?
If this was intended as a joke, it’s not funny. If this was intended as satire, please read Swift’s “A Modest Proposal” to see how it’s supposed to be done. If this was intended to point out the many problems with our province’s governance, doing it before the last provincial election would have been far more useful. If this was intended to be serious, then god help you because you just poked a hornet’s nest.
Not everything is about money. I can guarantee you the vast majority of Canadians do not want to be part of America, especially under Trump.
We don’t want our women bleeding out in parking lots until they are close enough to death to receive medical care, or 10 yr old rape victims being forced to carry dangerous pregnancies to term.
But hey the economy might be a bit better for a while. Until he runs up the national debt like he did in his first term and the whole thing crashes.
Canadian Border Services: “Do you have any guns?”
American Tourist: “Whadaya need…?”
I want to be respectful, but I just cant. This column must have been written by a troll bot.
I returned here four years ago after years in the States. Their militant religion borders on insanity. Their gun culture borders on insanity. And while *some* medical procedures will be quicker there, youll go bankrupt paying for them. Plus their emergency rooms are not immune to wait times in the double digits.
This suggests is proposing the same bargain with the devil Trump voters just made, which he is already backing away from (his promise to lower the cost of living for Americans). Do you really think hed keep any promises to Canadians?
Also, groceries and liquor are not notably cheaper once you factor in taxes and the exchange rate. The thought that everythings cheaper there isnt true any more. It is part of why Trump was elected.
Its mind-boggling to see The Coast providing an audience for this degree of ignorance.
Go live there if it’s so great, there’s no way this is ever happening.
Besides all the issues like healthcare, violence, and inequality you fail to mention, it’s not as if becoming a state would suddenly mean NS would share in the US averages for the economic factors you list. It’s childish to think that such a process wouldn’t be messy, expensive, and complicated, and probably cause serious damage to a US-Canadian relationship, which we’d still be relying heavily on for trade (we don’t even have a direct US border!).
I will happily pay more taxes for some of the services and social security nets we have here, even though they’re certainly imperfect, but let’s not waste money on a stupid referendum.
Is this really the type of viewpoints we can expect from the coast now? Disappointing if so.
I have cancelled my paid subscription to The Coast.
Is this….satire? Definitely has turned me off of the coast, I’m sad to say.
Nova Scotia doesn’t need venal traitors and landlord grifters like Michael Kennedy – if he wants to participate in the dumpster fire that is the USA he is more than welcome to be an immigrant there.
What the fuck is this story ? I mean normally I read coat stories with a grain of salt, but this is simply a right wing call for chaos.
Joining the US is NOT going to happen so all arguments are moot at best. One other important benefit omitted by Mr. Kennedy – free speech. In the US, one can express an opinion that deviates from the government line without being totally beaten into the ground by the ” wokes”.
Examples (and there are many more): Did you know there are some in government who want to pass a law making it illegal to deny that the residential school system constituted a genocide?
Government has already accepted that it was, based on a total lack of OBJECTIVE evidence ie. no remains in so-called “unmarked” graves (those marked with WOODEN crosses 100 yrs. ago) have been recovered to-date; no exhumations or forensic evidence or cold case investigations have been initiated by the RCMP nor requested by the government. Wait for it – the racist label for me!
Not everyone in Canada agrees with abortion “on demand” – no questions asked, or the use of it as an option for birth control. I believe in a tighter process but the mere suggestion would label me as a – yep, you heard it – mysoginist.
Here is another “racist” one. Billions spent on a population that constitutes less than 5% of the population (First Nations) and more billions to come with virtually no accounting, accountability or results measurement processes in place. (1 Billion in Atlantic Canada on fisheries – where did it go?) Despite the money flow, living conditions on Reserves for many are dismal at best. Begging an objective investigation into the question – why?
Approximately 12 hours and 20 comments after this opinion piece was shared in the morning newsletter, The Coast added the blurb at the bottom about freedom of expression. It’s fascinating to me how frequently that concept is misused as a shield. Yes, The Coast has the legal freedom to publish what they want and Michael Kennedy has the legal freedom to write what he wants. The flipside to that is that we — the public, the commenters, the readers — are also totally free to express our own opinions on what The Coast has published and what Michael Kennedy has written. Tossing the Charter our direction just because you don’t like the negative tone of the comment section shows a fundamental misunderstanding of what the Charter is actually saying. It is not protection from us; instead, it emboldens us.
That said, I will now use my Charter-given right to freely express that Michael Kennedy sounds like a treasonous fool with a very narrow view of life that doesn’t include anything outside of the scope of money. I will also freely express that I believe The Coast made an enormous error in judgement in publishing this piece because even if they don’t “necessarily endorse the views of those published”, they also clearly don’t mind giving words like this a platform. Freedom of expression and freedom of the press means you, editors, are allowed to choose what words show up in this publication, and you have chosen poorly.
He has a right to his opinions and to express them. The real question here is how low has the editorial standards of the Coast fallen to platform someone like Mr. Kennedy, who a quick research into will reveal is a right wing troll.
Michael Kennedy and all those like him might want to read the words of a wise old 91year-old to know how most Canadians feel on the subject.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/4d3fa…
So you want a revolution … maybe this is it.
Some form of association with the US is an essential topic for discussion. Remember, there would be negotiations and, of course, a referendum. Kudos to the normally elitest-aligned Coast (I ran in elections here in NS – I know) for allowing this conversation. It is also a shame to see so many comments (“I am cancelling my subscription”) wanting to shut down the conversation and maintain the sh**ty status quo here in NS. The Premier, mainstream parties and media are on your side and will undoubtedly thank you. There are various association models to explore; remember “economic association”? O’Leary has some interesting economic ideas currently, not saying they are good or not, but interesting. Most Greenlanders see it as a viable plan (joining the US in some fashion – their elites must be hoping mad; ours aren’t there yet). Mr Kennedy outlined the money side in a great article in the Atlantic Business Magazine. I encourage you all to read it. Sure, there are issues, such as health care, but what is the solution? Let’s discuss.
I would welcome a discussion on a “democracy association” since our current system cannot be reformed, only overthrown (we tried). The democracy dividends Nova Scotians could receive would be transformative. The potential for fairer elections, recall of your representative, binding referendums, an actual written constitution, breaking the power of the parties to dictate voting in the legislature, absolute separation of powers, and real constraints on the power of the executive. On and on. The Nova Scotia voter would no longer be a ‘nobody’. These are unalloyed positives. In case anybody noticed, most Nova Scotia voters recently voted against the current system in the last election; 55% did not participate! Maintain the status quo? Seriously!!
As I can tell you, only the elites are against these benefits and any discussion.
Jonathan Dean
Author, Founder and former Leader of the Atlantica Party
Even just the name, “novascexit” is cringeworthy.