When will MP Andy Fillmore be replaced?

As a politician, Andy Fillmore has good timing. Back in 2015 he ran for the federal Liberal Party in the Halifax riding, winning to become a member of parliament on the same “sunny ways” wave of Liberal popularity that swept Justin Trudeau into the prime minister’s office. After a couple more election wins—each time, on the strength of another Liberal government—MP Fillmore resigned the Halifax seat last September to run for mayor. He got out before the Liberal Party’s problems became his problems, which is to say, before being on Team Trudeau could taint his credibility. The move paid off for Fillmore: Even with some grumbling about whether he used his federal seat to his advantage while campaigning for mayor, he easily won the job.

Trudeau’s exit from the Liberals isn’t going so gracefully. He recently tendered his resignation as party leader—and thus as prime minister—effective whenever the Libs pick a new leader. To buy the party some time, he also convinced governor general Mary Simon to prorogue parliament, pressing pause on the country’s main legislative body until March 24. The prorogation prevents the opposition parties from forcing a general election, something they’ve vowed, from the safety of being prorogued, to do at the earliest chance. (This Toronto Star story is behind a paywall, but the headline says all you need to know: “Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh say they’ll try to trigger an election as soon as possible.”)

Normally, Trudeau might’ve earned credit from the pundits for a savvy play even as the political winds are driving him from office. But Don Trump’s takeover of the American presidency this week reminds us these are not normal times. Trudeau has been criticized, both for backing down when the country—and the world—could use his experience dealing with Trump, and for neutralizing Canada’s government at the moment Trump’s tough-tariff-talking government is just getting rolling.

Plus, if the opposition does choose to force an election soon after parliament resumes, adding more than a month of campaigning until Canada has a government to engage with the fast-moving Trump, they’ll doubtless blame Trudeau for that too. But first the Liberals have to pick a leader, who will be prime minister at least until an election. (The fixed election date law says Canada’s next election is October 20, 2025, although one can be called earlier.)

All of this makes for plenty of excitement in Ottawa. But don’t forget that empty Halifax seat. The federal Liberals are choosing their new leader March 9. Before that, however, a byelection must be called for the Halifax riding, forcing the Liberals to deal with a small local race and the highest-stakes national contest all around the same time. And while picking the next prime minister hogs the spotlight, The Coast is more concerned about when that Halifax byelection is happening.

If they’ve thought about the byelection at all, the federal Liberals aren’t sharing any timing details with us. (We asked.) The Conservative and New Democratic Parties have already chosen their Halifax candidates—Mark Boudreau and Lisa Roberts respectively. The Liberals don’t have one yet.

“We have a handful of terrific nominee contestants and the process is going forward through an application and vetting process,” says Martha Reynolds, chair of the Halifax Federal Liberal Association, in an email to The Coast. “These things take time as the National campaign team that oversees the process is coordinating with the Liberal Party who is also managing a national leadership contest. So no firm timeline is set.”

Looking at the rules and the calendar shows there are really only two options for the Halifax byelection. The first is moving quickly to call the byelection and get a Halifax representative elected to the prorogued parliament. The second is waiting so long that if a general election really is called soon after parliament resumes on March 24, the election is nullified, and the Halifax riding becomes a seat like every other up for grabs in the federal election. We can call the scenarios Now and Never, and each comes with a range of dates.

Now

Halifax byelection called no later than Feb 8

Canada’s Elections Act says when a parliamentary seat is vacated, a byelection to fill it must be called sometime between 11 and 180 days after the vacancy. But calling the election within the allotted period is only half of the game; there’s also picking the voting day, which has to be on a Monday at least 37 days after the call, and at most 51 days, Elections Canada explains to The Coast.

As the ruling party, for now, the Liberals get to decide both of these dates. Fillmore officially resigned Sep 1, 2024, way more than 11 days ago, so the call can be made as soon as now, and it must be made no later than March 2, 2025. The voting date follows from that.

For example, if the Liberals moved quickly and made the call today—Thursday, Jan 23—the byelection voting day could be either March 3 or March 10, the only Mondays between 37 and 51 days after the call. And a new Halifax member of parliament would be elected well before prorogation ended, ready to sit in Ottawa when the session resumes Monday, March 24.

If the election call came in a week—Thursday, Jan 30—then Monday, March 10 would be the earliest eligible date for voting day. Considering the calendar this way, the Liberals could push the call as far as Saturday, Feb 8 (for a March 17 voting day) and the Halifax seat would still be filled for parliament’s restart.

Can the Liberals move that fast? Considering the national leadership race is an ongoing attention suck until March 9, and they don’t even have a candidate for the Halifax seat yet, this option feels unlikely bordering on impossible.

We should note that we’re not considering Monday, March 24 as a possible byelection day, which would extend the deadline for the call to Feb 15. With parliament reopening that Monday, holding an election at the same time feels like a dick move. Then again, Trudeau’s whole resignation is a bit of a dick move, so it’s hard to rule anything out.

Never

Halifax byelection called between Feb 9 and March 2

If the byelection isn’t over before parliament unpauses, it may never happen. Legally, it has to be called by March 2—whether or not parliament is prorogued, whether or not the local Liberals find someone to run. But from a March 2 call, the only possible voting days are April 14 and 21. Both are after parliament’s return, when the opposition has threatened to force a general election. And a general election supersedes and nullifies a byelection.

Imagine the election call came as early as Feb 9 with Monday, March 31 as the voting day. (We’re still considering the parliamentary restart of March 24 off limits for a byelection.) Lisa Roberts, Mark Boudreau and a theoretical Liberal would be campaigning through February and into March. If this was a literal horse race, they’d be rounding the final turn around March 27, heading toward the finish line. And boom! In Ottawa the Liberal government falls, a general election is called and the byelection for Halifax is immediately waved off. Boudreau, Roberts and Mystery Liberal of the Not-Too-Distant Future go back to the starting line, just like every federal politician. From there, the search for Andy Fillmore’s replacement begins anew.

This is the scenario the opposition threaten/promise—calling an election as soon as they’re able when parliament is back at work, which we can work with to find the longest we’ll have to wait to get that Halifax seat filled. If by some strange fluke the opposition politicians are not true to their words, so they don’t force a general election, and if the Liberals delay calling the byelection until March 2, the latest possible voting day would be April 21. If the opposition does force a general election during that first week of parliament’s return, May 5 and May 12 are the Monday voting day options.

To summarize and simplify the Now and Never options: Motivated, fast-moving Liberals could move immediately to call the Halifax byelection, and the soonest day to vote for a Fillmore replacement would be March 3. If the Liberals move slowly enough for parliament to reopen before the byelection vote, and if the opposition follows through on their promise to quickly force a general election, the very latest voting day for the Halifax seat (and every other seat in parliament) is May 12.

Not that Fillmore himself needs to care about any of this. City Hall business, including his first municipal budget, is doubtless occupying most of his time.