Is it too soon to say, “So long, Rodney?”
The final outcome is still far from a done deal, of course. Forget
those public opinion polls predicting an NDP victory in next month’s
elections. Those numbers reflect mostly province-wide aggregates of
voting intentions; real-life elections in Nova Scotia are usually won
and lost in the electoral trenches of a small number of individual
ridings where a subtle swing of a few hundred votes in one direction or
another—or another—can result in a tsunami of political
consequence.
But this election is more complicated. Last week, I asked Brian
Flinn—allnovascotia.com‘s
politics reporter and one of the province’s most astute political
observers—which ridings he believed were still in doubt. Without
breaking a sweat or consulting notes, he rhymed off 10 constituencies
where the outcome still isn’t clear.
The wild card in most of them is what will happen to the Liberal and
Tory voters.
In the last election, the Liberals were so awful even many
traditional Liberal voters deserted them. This campaign, Stephen McNeil
has been more than credible. But can he win those voters back? And, if
so, from whom? The Tories? The NDP?
If, as expected, the traditional Tory vote collapses on election
day, where will it seek shelter? Will it help the Liberals? Or the
NDP?
It is possible that after the electoral music stops June 9, enough
Liberal candidates will have plunked themselves into enough empty
chairs to vault into power. It is much less likely but still possible
that an uptick in Liberal support could hurt the NDP enough to allow
the Tories to cling to power.
Or…
But let us suppose for the moment that the most expected happens and
Rodney MacDonald’s Tory government is defeated, as it deserves to be,
and Rodney’s career as leader is over, as it also deserves to be.
Are there lessons to be learned from that? Beyond, of course, the
obvious: that governments, like fish, begin to stink after too long in
the sun.
If the Conservatives lose, it strikes me the person second-most
responsible for their electoral failure will have been Rodney
MacDonald.
MacDonald himself is not such a bad guy. I only talked in depth with
him once but he seemed personable enough, and much brighter than he
sounds in his scripted, stick-to-the-talking-points public
pronouncements. And he did grow in the job; given where he began, of
course, it would have been unimaginable for him not to have. But he
never appeared, in my interview with him then, or in anything I read
before or since, to have a clue why he wanted to be premier or what he
wanted to actually do in the job.
The irony is that the men he defeated for the Tory leadership in
2006, former finance minister Neil LeBlanc and Halifax businessman Bill
Black, were both small-c conservatives whose policies were grounded in
principles.
Which brings me to those most responsible for their party’s current
mess: the Tory backroom boys and their handmaidens, the convention
delegates, who convinced themselves MacDonald’s inability to articulate
a clear vision for what this province should be and his obvious
inexperience in the substance of policy were not liabilities but
assets.
The arguments in favour of Rodney boiled down to two: he was a fresh
face with no political baggage—of the intellectual or experience
varieties—to weigh him down, and that he was relatively young, which
meant that—ipso facto, ergo sum—he could appeal to younger voters
whom they trusted to be narcissistic enough to be attracted by his
relative youngishness and dumb enough not to notice that he had nothing
else going for him.
When what passes for the Tory brain trust goes back to the drawing
board, as it will have to after this election, one hopes they will
begin by giving voters more credit than they did three years ago.
In the meantime, so long, Rodney. We hardly knew you.
What’s Rodney’s next career move? Let me know at
stephenk@thecoast.ca.
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This article appears in May 28 – Jun 3, 2009.
good riddance to rodney… i hope!
Next career move? I more or less guarantee that he will be back in the gym teaching full-time, while there are others like me playing the waiting game with the HRSB.
they’ll miss his fiddle playing at premiers’ conferences, but otherwise i doubt anyone outside of NS will know that he’s gone.
Next job: London. 2012. Canadian Olympic Trampolinist.
It never ceases to amaze me why more of these brillant journalists,like Stephen Kimber,who seem to know eveything about running a province don’t offer their”perfect” selves for public service.Could it be that being totally negative is more fulfilling than doing something positive in service to their fellow citizens? old pol.
Oldpol,
…”people like Stephen Kimber” know better than to step outside of what they’re born to do. Unlike our trampoline professional, fiddle playing, gym teacher-premier.
-b
Fouge,
Everyone is born to serve others. The premier has chosen many avenues. All the more to him for that. It’s a good thing that he stays positive even after experiencing cultural and professional slights (that wouldn’t be tolerated by other cultural groups) from among the media and the general public. Is the small-town lawyer or the appliance repair man somehow more qualified to be a politician/leader? Maybe you should put your guitar down and consider expanding your horizons in a positive manner, but not follow Kimber’s examples of negative writing a la his last article on MacDonald; and now this editorial (and Tim B’s comments) that are obvious last ditch attempts to try to ensure a PC electoral defeat. It’s a good thing that other writers,’born to’ write provide more balanced writing (and even editorials).
DD bills himself as ‘building a successful business’ which somewhat stretches the truth but neither Mr Kimber nor Mr Bousquest calls him out on the issue.
If a potential premier will distort the truth about his work life, what else is open to distortion and what is wrong with saying “I entered law practice with a small and well established downtown Dartmouth legal group with lawyers from all 3 main parties”
Vote GREEN, is’s a nicer colour.
hey, what gives?
on the illustration of Rodney it says ‘click to enlarge’… but when i do, his twig & berries are still thumbnail sized?? his porcine face scales up just fine though.
2 Reasons why Rodney May Not Lose:
1. The Voters. You have to look at the history of NS voting. Tha majority that turn out to vote live in small town/ rural areas. These voters are generally middle to old aged. These areas are usually PC dominated.
2. Most polling and research comes from internet polling, email and database exchanges. I would love to think the younger generation would have a higher turnout than the older, but our young voter turnout is the absolute craps. Intention does not turn into a vote. People have to take time to go, or log on and vote. While political concious the youth MAY be, most (not all) are lazy to go to the polls and feel completley unattached to the politcal proccess.
Guarantee me that every poll responent didn’t come from an on-line source, that these “pollsters” went knocking on door to door in our rural communities; then I will believe that the NDP will run with it or that they are slightly ahead. I’ve been following NS politics a long time, and since Dexter struck down the Gov’T was the 1st and only time there were such “polls” suggesting the NDP were favored. Eitherway, Dexter called this election because of personal ambition, nothing else.
Rodney is a young, decent and a good leader of the PCers, has surrounded himself with the biggest losers NS has to offer. Don’t believe me? Fine…..I may be the only one sitting back, watching another Rodney Minority saying “I told you so”.
Rodney gets heavily criticized, but answer me this, name a leader in the free world who is popular? Even our dear friend Obama has seen a rapid decline in popularity.
Totally negative?! Is it Kimber’s fault an astute assesment of the situation is uncomplimentary? That being said, I would vote for Kimber in a heartbeat – or anyone else willing to break this stagnancy that is squandering our intellectual resources. I want a leader, not a party.
Oh Betty Sirus,
Kimber’s assessment is twisted, just like his last feature article on MacDonald. Take it from me, no matter how many positive comments a person can give to journalists, some, and I emphasize some (i.e.) Stephen Kimber, seem to find some small part of a quote that may twist a story in the direction of their leanings, vendettas, etc. Even though I am left of centre myself, both his and Tim Bousquest’s (this week) approach to and treatment of the premier sickens me. The cartoons in the editorials of MacDonald, BTW, are tasteless, and very often culturally derogatory. And yes Kimber, MacDonald is brighter than you think; bright enough to have been an award-nominated musician and to have become premier with his professional background…something like becoming a university teacher without a PhD perhaps.
I pity the next premier. When he and his cabinet are briefed as to the issues they face they will quickly realise they are in over their heads.
Example : Healthcare is a money pit. The next minister will be briefed by a deputy minister, not by the NSGEU or NSNU or CUPE who would wander over to the legislature and whisper away to NDP members and ignore Liberals and Tories. Who will they whisper too when DD is premier and they don’t like what he is doping ? The very cosy relationship will soon be put to the test. Nor every ‘ER’ is an ER, more like a walk in clinic. Closures will continue, if you choose to live in Tatamagouche, Guysborough or other out of the way place you should realise that none of the three parties are able to admit we can only properly staff at most 6 ERs. Skilled doctors are reluctant to move to the boonies where their skills will not be tested and their brain atrophy.
Pathologists – same problem in many parts of Canada, look at the problems in NB,Nfld & Quebec. Many have left and the replacements from overseas have been less than adequate. In a few years, and about 20 years late, major medical procedures will be performed in just a few locations where the skilled staff will have daily contact with the patients receiving treatment for serious illnesses.
Nurse are retiring in droves, stressed out, tired out and no solution in sight so they keep moving from one old folks home to another or retire and maybe work part-time where management then tries to convince them to work full-time. If you don’t know someone who works in a hospital, long term care or VON then you have no clue how bad it is.You can kid yourself that all provinces can supply world class healthcare but look at the populations of smaller provinces and you’ll quickly realise the truth.
Education – never mentioned in this election other than community colleges. Increasing enrollment at private & religious schools is eating away at public support for the public school system and many parents are using the open boundaries policy to live in one area and send the precious one of to a ‘good’ school further away from the poor, and mentally or physically challenged kids.
Energy – despite what DD & SM tell you it is obvious to anyone with a brain larger than a pea that the price of coal, electricity, gasoline, heating oil & natural gas is headed in one direction. What a waste of space listening to some pol or voter whining about the price of gas. Add in windmills and other renewables and the price of electricity will increase further.
Public sector – the unfunded liabilities of pension plans for employees, judges, MLAs is over $1.2 billion. Rodney wants to increase contributions for the civil service by 1% which is the same as a finger in the dyke. Big changes required on the issue. And I just don’t know how bad the pension plan for teachers is but you can probably add another $500 mn on top of the $1.2 bn.
The MSM has already decided the NDP will win and are giving DD an easy ride whilst many commenters are just tearing into Rodney. The Coast coverage is equally bad but they don’t have the money the other MSM have.
This election reminds me of the 1993 election ‘throw-the-bums-out-and-elect-savage-for-jobs’. Like lemmings to the cliff they voted Liberal and ended up with Savage days etc.
Prediction – NDP win and many angry people in 12 months. Same mess in health, education and the finances. The MSM will have a field day watching the new government stumble around and the leg will provide plenty of laughs. Blaming Rodney will be a waste of time in 12 months because we the voters have not asked the 3 wise men more pointed questions. What we deserved was 3 debates of two hours each with the audience asking the questions; on second thoughts, we don’t deserve it because we never asked for it. Who gives a damn what Rodney does when he is not the premier ? Shoddy journalism, its been the norm in Nova Scotia for decades.
Olpol, I would tell you what I think of Kimber but they will just pull my post..but no worries….he already knows….. too much ‘white washing’ in the HRM