 Statistics based on the unofficial results from the 2024 general election in Nova Scotia show that voter turnout decreased by nearly 10% from the last election, which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to Election NS’s post-election report from 2021, the total voter turnout was 422,712 out of 767,618 eligible voters—55.1%, a minor increase from the previous election’s turnout of 53.4%. The 2024 election turnout, based on the unofficial results released by Elections NS, is 45.3%. According to graphs provided by Elections NS in their previous reports, this would be one of the worst turnouts in the province’s history.
Voter participation has steadily declined since the 1980s—a reality in most provinces, not just Nova Scotia. Elections NS shows that turnout in 1960 was 82%, and although it remained around 77% throughout the 1970s, this began to change during the 1981 general election. John Buchanan’s PC Party was elected a second time with a turnout of 74.2% —slightly lower than when he and his party ran to defeat the incumbent Liberals in 1978. This dipped even further in 1984, when Buchanan’s PCs broke the record for the most seats occupied by a single party: they won 42 seats with only 67.5% of voters casting a ballot.
This turnout would rise once more when it came to Buchanan’s fourth run with the PC Party in 1988. Voter turnout bounced back to 75.8%, and Buchanan lost 14 seats to Vince MacLean’s Liberals while still clinching a victory. Since then, participation has steadily declined year over year, descending the 70-60% range through the 1990s and early 2000s until reaching a low of 59.9% in 2006. While it has continually lingered within the high-50s from 2006 to 2013, the 2017 election which saw Stephen MacNeil’s Liberals take office was then the all-time low at 53.4%.
Lower than the pandemic election
It’s not hard to imagine why a pandemic election would sustain such a low voter turnout at 55.1%. A report from Elections Canada found that a percentage of voters didn’t want to risk getting COVID-19. The 2021 provincial election required people to either vote in-person or by mail, and while Elections NS included public health measures in their planning, the risk was still there. The 2021 provincial election also saw a low turnout from young people at just 39.1%.
The question remains: what has caused this election turnout to be even worse than that of the pandemic? There’s no real answer as of yet, but there are a few factors that could have contributed.
Unlike the election in 2021, the 2024 general was called a year before it was set to take place despite previous promises made by premier Tim Houston to set fixed election dates. This sudden election gave parties one month to campaign, and as polling showed before the election was called, Houston’s PC Party was overwhelmingly popular with Nova Scotian voters. There was little to no chance for the Liberals to do anything more than hope to retain the seats they had. While the NSNDP managed to pick up three seats from incumbent PC candidates plus two more from Liberals, Zach Churchill’s Liberal party was decimated, losing 15 of their 17 seats, including their leader’s seat in Yarmouth
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With this overwhelming victory plain to see even for those who are passively politically engaged, it very well could have stopped some from participating at all, whether they would have voted blue, red or orange.
In reliably PC districts such as Truro or Shelburne, voter turnout was much lower than the average. Shelburne PC Nolan Young thoroughly defeated his opponents with 76.8% of the vote, but the total turnout for their district was 34.5%. PC Dave Ritcey overwhelmed his opponents with a 3,000 vote lead on the runner-up, but only 35.8% of over 16,000 registered voters turned out to cast their ballot.
But turnout was also poor in NSNDP-won districts, as well. Lina Hamid’s narrow victory over PC Nicole Mosher and Liberal incumbent Patricia Arab in Fairview-Clayton Park saw only 39.8% of the district’s 15,716 registered voters show up. NSNDP Susan Leblanc netted her re-election in Dartmouth North with a 36.4% turnout, soundly defeating her opponents by nearly 70% of the vote. Whether it’s a tough race between competitors or a well-assured victory, voter turnout seemingly went either way.
The two seats left to the Liberals saw turnout higher than the average. Liberal Iain Rankin retained his seat in Timberlea-Prospect with a turnout of 49.9%, garnering 54.9% of the vote, while Derek Mombourquette in Sydney-Membertou retained his Liberal seat with a turnout of 53.3%, netting around 45% of the total vote.
Some PC districts had higher turnout; some didn’t. NSNDP districts saw some of the turnout in their districts lean toward the average. The lack of turnout is seemingly widespread across the three main parties whether they’re contested districts or not. Perhaps the closest race in the election, for Clayton Park West, saw 40.9% of its voters come out to cast their ballots—nearly 5% below the average.
One reason being attributed to low turnout is the lack of voter information cards. Elections Nova Scotia decided to forgo the usual process of mailing out these cards as the incoming Canada Post strike would have likely seen them go undelivered. Instead, voters had to call their returning office or use the Elections NS website to find out where to vote during the early voting period and election day. Senior advocacy groups, as well as Churchill, were upset by this decision, finding that it would make it more difficult for seniors to figure out where and when they could vote. As several reported on social media, the Elections NS website experienced interruptions during election day.
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All we know for sure as of now is that the 2024 turnout is a record low for the province. It has yet to be seen if it was the fault of the election being called early, people not responding to the policies politicians advocated for, the blue surge that was expected to happen or the lack of voter information cards. However, they are all worth keeping in mind as the 2024 provincial election comes to a close.
This article appears in Nov 7-30, 2024.
The vote rate actually dropped by almost 20%. It went from 55% to 45%. That means the voter turnout rate was 10% less; but the change in voter turnout rate (10%) needs to be divided by the 2021 figure of 55% to figure out the % drop: 10/55 = an 18% decline.
About 17,000 more people were eligible to vote but fewer voted than last time. The reduction in the number who voted was about 18% too: 422,712 in 2021 down to 347,646 or a drop of 77,807. 77,807/422,712 is about 18%.
I’m old school.
I have voted in every election I’ve ever lived through.
Personally, I think the biggest reason fewer people are getting out to vote is a combination of apathy combined with the general belief that politicians are (in a word) useless. People can’t be bothered to get out there. Or, as one buddy of mine told me, “They’re all the same, aren’t they?”.
As for me, I’m going to keep on voting.
Why?
Well, my Uncle Glen always said that if you don’t vote you lose the personal right to complain about whoever happens to be running things.
That’s wisdom enough for me.