Say what you will about the Save the View group, which was formed in opposition to the proposed convention centre in Halifax, but there’s no denying that they are dogged, and determined to bring real analysis to figures that are seemingly randomly generated by Trade Centre Limited and other pro-convention centre groups.
Today, Save the View sent me their analysis of the local hotel industry and how that would be affected by the addition of 500 more hotel rooms at the convention centre. Their conclusion for the best case scenario:
Even the wildly optimistic estimates cited in the in-house Trade Centre Limited Staff Report (2010) of an average of 18,310 national, 9,145 international and 15,900 national corporate delegates a year4, or just over five times the current number of convention delegates, the total room night absorption would still be only 104,000 of the new rooms; leaving over 75,000 room nights to be absorbed by non-convention delegates.
I should stress that many local hotels are on record as supporting the convention centre. I’m forwarding this to the hotel lobbying group, and will give them time to react to it; if they desire, I’ll be happy to post their response.
For myself, I think STV has made an interesting case. You can read their entire analysis here.
I realize that many people will reject these arguments simply because they come from Save the View, but it’d be encouraging if the substance of the arguments could be debated.
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This article appears in Sep 2-8, 2010.
There can be no debate because there is no substance to their claims. For years the hotel industry here has said that we need a large modern hotel with associated meeting and kitchen capacity in order to support meetings and conferences we cannot handle with our surfeit of small hotels. The STV arguments are as bogus as their pictures of black blocks looming over Citadel Hill.
BoGus, your claims are just as bogus as anyone else’s. I’d like to see the actual study and decide that way rather than let some obviously biased (based on every comment I’ve ever read from you) opinion.
2008 was the highest point in the Halifax hotel market. Try and find a hotel room in Halifax this weekend. Student arrivals are good business in late August/early September. Add on weddings and the regular tourists and this time of year is usually the best for hotels as no kids tourists come here for cooler climes as well as the fall colours. By October business is tailing off and convention business picks up until it ends by mid November.
Bill Estabrooks is spouting the usual nonsense about conventioneers bringing the family and spending time in Nova Scotia. Take note that neither he nor the convention boosters ever provide any data to support that argument. Many do not even bring a spouse and stay for the sessions that have their interest and then leave town before the end of the convention. Business travel is closely controlled and time wasting is frowned upon. Welcome to the reality of the convention business, the golden age is over.
As for a large hotel and the comments of Bogus you have to wonder why the ‘demand’ has never been met by the private sector, easy money was around prior to 2008 but obviously no investor was willing to take the risk despite banks falling over themselves to extend credit. Not anymore, the banks and other lenders are a lot more cautious.
By the way, what happened to the Twisted Sisters development ?
First of all, I think this post needs to disclose that the Hotel part of the development is financed and owned by the developer. No public money will go to this. Sure, a few infrastructure items may have to overlap (like boiler rooms, air, etc.), but for the most part the two are separate.
So, the Save the View folks are trying to tell a developer who is putting millions of his own money in his own project “we know better than you and the companies you hired to assess this project. Your hotel will fail!! … unless you reduce the height of your office tower by 5 floors.” This, of course, is laughable to anyone who knows anything about how these decisions are made.
An equal absurdity is the notion that when developers have access to public subsidies for their projects, suddenly all their common sense and business acumen goes out the window, and these developers are reduced to incompetent novices who can’t wait to go bankrupt by investing heavily into projects that are oh-so-obviously doomed to fail.
I don’t understand what the quoted numbers are supposed to show when they’re included here out of context. But let’s take them at face value for now. Given the ‘best case scenario’ noted above, it looks like the hotel part will be at around 70% occupancy throughout the year from convention delegates alone. (About 43,000 delegates staying an average of 3 nights for each convention = about 130,000 hotel nights from a possible 182,500 room nights (500 rooms x 365 days)).
That 70% occ. rate doesn’t count regular business from non-conventioneers.
According to stats from the Nova Scotia Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Heritage, the occupancy rate in metro Halifax as of 2008 (latest recorded year) is around 67%.* Contrasting that with the 70% in the best case scenario above tells me this convention center hotel will be on par with the average.
Even at less-than-rosy convention rates, the Hotel will still have a good shot at success because on top of its total monopoly on convention delegates as the preferred hotel of choice, it will also compete and eat a share of the non-convention pie of overnight stays in downtown Halifax. It will be in a great location, it will have better and newer amenities than most other hotels in the area, and will be priced on par with area rates.
I’m not sure if that’s enough ‘substance’ to counter STV’s opinions, but there is a ton more facts and figures about this project at the official convention center web page. It would be nice to see you provide a link to that page just as you have provided a link to the STV page just to keep it fair.
Official facts, figures and FAQs about the new convention center are at: https://conventioncentreinfo.com/about/faq….
* http://www.gov.ns.ca/tch/tourism/key-tourism-indi….
A better place for a convention centre hotel would be out nearer the airport. Why is it everybody wants to build near the Citadel ? Those view-planes by-laws were put there for a reason. As far as I’m concerned they should remain strictly enforced. Another point for building outside the peninsula is that conventions are usually planned to be cost-effective. Obviously, it would be cheaper to build outside of the downtown and would allow the complex to be more price competitive allowing it to compete with other cities. Having it closer to the airport makes sense logistically as well. Why don’t we spread out a little ? This extended municipality is “all hat and no cattle” as it is. Maybe we could even use the money we save to get to work on a light rapid transit link from the penninsula to the airport ? Of course that would require vision.
I can’t stand these “save the view” and “heritage trust” losers. How about we “save the jobs” or “save the economy”? Nah, let’s just give every young educated or professional person more reasons to leave Nova Scotia and never look back.