New polling from Abacus Data suggests Premier Tim Houston’s PC Party has taken a dip in popularity following a contentious budget season. Meanwhile, the rising cost of living remains the biggest issue amongst voters.
Surveying 610 adults within Nova Scotia, Houston’s conservatives only picked up 38 percent of decided voters, 10 percent less than the last Abacus poll in January 2026. This would still make his party the ones to beat if an election were held today, but it shows just how much their popularity has tanked since announcing its $1.2-billion deficit budget in February.
Trailing behind the Tories are the NSNDP at 31 percent, a six-point increase, and the Nova Scotia Liberals at 23 percent, a five-point increase. The Green Party have a 3 percent vote share, while other parties sit at 5 percent.
The shift in vote share away from the PCs can be partly explained by the greatest challenges faced by Nova Scotians, of which 78 percent of those polled said the province’s top issue is the rising cost of living. Healthcare and housing affordability sit below it, both with 49 percent. Furthermore, 45 percent of those polled said Houston and his government are taking Nova Scotia in the wrong direction.
In May 2025, only 25 percent of those polled by Abacus Data said the province was off-track. In this poll, six out of ten people under 30 years old had a pessimistic view of the province’s future.
While vote intentions line up fairly evenly by gender, the same cannot be said for age.
According to Abacus Data, only 29 percent of people under the age of 45 would vote for the PCs. In contrast, 45 percent of people over 45 years old would vote for Houston’s party. Those under the age of 45 are much more likely to vote for the NSNDP at 38 percent.
In terms of leader impressions, Houston’s standing has dropped considerably. Out of those surveyed, 32 percent viewed him positively while 41 percent viewed him negatively, with a net impression rating of -9. In comparison, NSNDP leader Claudia Chender is the most positively viewed party leader at 37 percent, with only 14 percent viewing her negatively. Her net impression rating is +23. In addition, most Nova Scotians approve of the NSNDP as the Official Opposition at 34 percent.
It’s important to remember that polling isn’t everything. It’s simply a snapshot of the public’s perception of our political systems. It cannot tell the full story behind why one party is doing well and why another isn’t. It asks simple questions about policy while noting thumbs-ups or thumbs-downs. This isn’t to question the accuracy, but rather, to say that polling is just polling. What people decide to do when they’re at a voting booth could differ, especially depending on what candidates run in their areas during the next election.
However, it remains useful to track how each political party is doing, especially after the 2024 election, where the Houston government swept up more than 40 seats, the NDP grabbed only a few more than they had before, and the Liberals were decimated with only two seats to their name.
Nova Scotia’s Liberals are making a small comeback in the eyes of the public. Leader Iain Rankin has a net impression rating of +5. They bounce around the low-twenties when it comes to vote share. They are in slightly better shape than they once were, especially with a new member on their side, Becky Druhan, who departed the PCs to become an independent until joining with Rankin’s party last month.
The NSNDP are gaining the most momentum, however. They are liked most by young people and by those in HRM, but their vote share indicates just how important that is. If an election were held today, they would have the best chance at dethroning the governing PCs.
As for the Tories, they are slipping. Chances are, if an election happened today, they would still win. However, if this trajectory continues, it isn’t likely that Houston’s party could say the same in a few months.
