Nobody knows what the future holds, but the past two waves of COVID in Nova Scotia tell us a lot about how the current third wave could end. The following animated slideshow from The Coast considers how previous waves reached a peak of active cases, then subsided over several weeks until the provincial government could safely lift lockdown restrictions and allow travel. The third wave finally peaked on May 10, so now we can predict how it will decline based on the behaviour of the first and second waves. If this wave acts exactly like a hybrid of its predecessors, the province’s lockdown will end on the first Wednesday in July. And if this wave is its own beast, influenced by COVID variants, Nova Scotia’s vaccination rollout and/or its own giant size, then all bets are off.
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This article appears in May 1-31, 2021.
I am not willing to wait until July 7th to see my daughter and grandkids. For a year and a half I went nowhere except to her house and her to mine. Yet because of poor decisions by Dr Strang and Iain we are paying for their stupidity! Mental health wise neither her nor I can go another month! We want our family bubble back NOW!
A sobering analysis. Thanks Kyle. A July reopening date may be depressing but at least you’re helping manage expectations. On the other hand our third wave is differentiated by the availability and roll-out of vaccines, and the province’s experience with the last two, so maybe there’s room to hope we can follow a more optimistic curve this time.
You should be thanking your lucky stars that all you have to do is close for a couple months. You should be thankful that your government has acted quickly to curb the third wave in your province. And Ontario we’ve been locked down since November because of the inaction of our government. It’s hard to watch people complain and refuse to comply, be thankful you’re not going through what we are going through.