Today’s map of community cases
The active caseload finally goes down
Every day for the last 24 days, the number of new C19 infections has been larger than the number of infected people who recovered from the disease. Last Monday, for example, the province announced 146 new cases but only 25 resolved cases (a net increase of 121 new cases), and on Friday there were 227 new cases and 71 resolutions (net 156 new cases). Days like that drive the number of active cases higher, and Nova Scotia just went through a record-long string of them.
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
Days in a row with cases
Total cases in Nova Scotia during pandemic
Nova Scotia’s lockdown
Does that mean the third wave is over? No.
For starters, this rocket could turn around at any time and resume its ascent, especially if, umm, everyone at mission control went shopping for sandals without wearing masks. And there were still 118 new infections today, a long way from the zero daily infections we reached a year ago after the first wave.
Plus the province has been struggling of late with an overload of tests and data, so the public really doesn't have any idea where things stand with the case numbers. ("Nova Scotia Health has created a team that is immediately calling all positive cases to advise they are positive and determine whether they need supports," says today's provincial COVID report. "Public health will continue to do detailed follow up on cases and contacts as soon as they are able.")
However, this is absolutely the best news we've had in weeks, as good a reason as any for cautious optimism.
We're so optimistic we'll point out this downturn in active cases comes on the 14th day of Nova Scotia's lockdown, and up to 14 days is the accepted COVID incubation period, therefore it's tempting to say the lockdown is working like clockwork to reduce infections at exactly two weeks. And we won't point out that in practise about 98 percent of infected people develop symptoms by 12 days; and the Central health zone, which has produced about 85 percent of the province's new cases since April 1, went into lockdown April 23, five days earlier than the province; so if locking down was the magic bullet we might have expected an 82.58 percent drop in new cases starting on Tuesday, May 4, one whole week ago, rather than the 1,151 cases we actually got during the last seven days.
No, we aren't going to even mention it. Such concerns about the numbers will have to wait for another day. Right now our active cases have dropped, and we're going to celebrate like astrophysicists whose rocket somehow managed not to hit anything when it came crashing back to earth.
COVID in the community health networksOur table logs data from Nova Scotia's official COVID-19 dashboard in order to provide this information. The province reports the number of active cases in each of the 14 community health networks, but The Coast does the math to be able to report the new and resolved case numbers.
Pfizer if you’re 40The province's age-based vaccine rollout just opened up the Moderna and Pfizer mRNA vaccines to another, younger cohort: people aged 40 to 44 years old. And that's effective today. Now everyone 40 and up in Nova Scotia has at least one jab option. Those between 40 and 64 can get either the AstraZeneca or an mRNA shot, while 65 and up are only allowed mRNA. Meanwhile, people 39 and younger can't book an appointment for any shot until the next opening.
Click here for yesterday's COVID-19 news roundup, for May 10, 2021.